Methane is deadly and accelerating, but it’s also fixable. Insights from Climate Week, New York.

I’m just back from #ClimateWeekNYC.  Here are my reflections from many events and scores of conversations (and 82,000 steps traversing the city travelling to meetings) on the red-hot topic of #methane. I hope you find these 9 themes thought-provoking:

1. Language – and Positive Framing – Matters

Words do matter.  Methane, gas, or natural gas?  “I feel we say methane when we mean something nasty, and natural gas when we mean something nice”, said a financial player.

Framing is crucial.  Shifting the narrative from methane as a threat to methane as an opportunity can spur action across sectors. After all, methane isn’t just an emissions problem; it’s a valuable resource that can be monetised, and in doing so, it can reduce emissions, improve energy security, improve health, and accelerate the energy transition.

Units matter too. The oil and gas industry primarily thinks in terms of gas volumes, while climate conversations are normally in tonnes. Aligning these perspectives is critical for effective communication.

Reframing the 34% of anthropogenic emissions that fossil fuels represent (c. 120 million tonnes) in volume terms as 180 BCM (Billion Cubic Meters) is perhaps helpful. That’s also $30 billion, and 4.5% of the gas industry globally.   Seen this way methane is an opportunity rather than a problem.

2. Pledges Are Good, But…

As Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), said: “pledges are OK, much appreciated and well noted, but we need to see action”.

Indeed, we are not lacking pledges—from governments, companies, and international bodies—but they are not enough. It’s promising that pledges are becoming more inclusive, bringing together a broader coalition, but without concrete action, they remain just that—pledges.

This is important as methane is currently at 1932 ppb (at 0.0002% concentration, 200x lower than CO2), but it is 80 times more potent (on a mass basis) than CO2 over a 20-year period. It’s caused 30-50% of global warming, and concentrations have been rising rapidly since 2007. Of the 575 million tonnes, 60% is anthropogenic, and of this, 40% is from agriculture, 34% from fossil fuels, and 19% from waste.

No wonder that methane needs to be fully integrated into Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), as reiterated by the IEA’s Birol. The urgency was palpable during Climate Week, with a shared consensus that “the time to act is now“.

3. We Are Already Benefitting From An Avalanche of Data

We are now experiencing an explosion of methane data. For flaring, Capterio‘s FlareIntel is the world leader. We track every flare for every asset, in every country, every day, and help companies and governments alike to drive down emissions. For methane, there’s an array of satellite data from sources like Sentinel-2, Sentinel-5, GOSAT, and more recently Carbon Mapper‘s Tanager-1 and Environmental Defense Fund‘s MethaneSAT (both launching new satellites in 2024). These satellites provide high-resolution data on methane leaks across industries, giving us unprecedented insights.

However, there’s no one-size-fits-all solution. As Carbon Mapper notes, “we need a whole spectrum of satellites working together—and to build systems of systems”. This ecosystem of data is fostering a new level of accountability, bolstered by the IMEO (International Methane Emissions Observatory) and the Methane Alert and Response System (MARS), which is already alerting operators to problems, many of which are being fixed within days.

The technology is here; we don’t need to wait to act. While there’s still some uncertainty, we know enough to take action. As GHG Sat put it, “we prioritise optimism over fear [and encourage others to] avoid seeing Earth Observation data as a threat”. We agree.

4. But So Far, The Data Shows Numbers Are Getting Worse

Three years on from the Global Methane Pledge and the ground-breaking Washington Post article that featured Capterio, the data is showing worrying trends. Methane levels are still rising, and despite the science, we don’t fully understand why. Some speculate it’s due to wetlands, while others point to the reduction in hydroxyl concentration (which destroys methane) following lower NOx emissions during COVID-19 lockdowns – see the Global Carbon Projects preprint here.

Scarily, a report by Kayyros out last week shows methane levels trending upward in all but two of the world’s major petroleum-producing regions, particularly in the USA, Iran, Iraq, and Algeria. World Bank data also reflects a worrying rise in gas flaring in 2023 compared to 2022 (as highlighted in Capterio’s report). As Debbie Gordon said, “finally understand that the things that are invisible can hurt us”, and “it’s not invisible anymore, so it will open up minds”. Furthermore, as Fred Krupp put it, “it’s difficult to make the case that gas is a transition fuel when waste is obvious but persistent”.

Of course, the headline figure masks progress that individual companies, countries and assets are making …

5. But Let’s Credit Success Where We See It

Tackling methane is “possible, practical, and powerful”, as John Podesta (US Presidential Advisor and architect of the ground-breaking Inflation Reduction Act) notes.

Amidst the challenges, there have been successes in all sectors, especially in the waste sector, where methane capture and utilisation have advanced significantly. Shoutouts to Nigeria and Mexico, with the latter being helped by de facto carbon pricing. Recognising and celebrating these wins is important not only for giving credit where it’s due but also to inspire further action. Local initiatives often have a more immediate impact, and subnational governments are in a unique position to drive faster action. Initiatives such as SMAC (Sub-National Methane Action Coalitions) are proving that sharing learnings and connecting local actors can accelerate progress.

One executive from an IOC noted, “we are already seeing the market paying up to a 2% premium for lower-carbon gas” demonstrating not only that the financial case for methane reduction is becoming stronger – and also that voluntary certification such as that provided by MiQ – Methane Intelligence really matter. Many methane mitigation actions, particularly in oil and gas, offer negative marginal costs—the cost of inaction outweighs the cost of action. When you tie methane mitigation to clear financial gains, the decision becomes a no-brainer. Thank you to Marcelo Mena for hosting an excellent session with subnational governments and the opportunity to chair.

COP28’s The Oil & Gas Decarbonization Charter (OGDC) – a pioneering set of commitments made by 50+ companies (including 32 National Oil Companies) soon will have a clear “accountability framework”, thanks to the IEA, EDF and others, ensuring that pledges turn into measurable outcomes (see also our paper “making COP28 announcements truly impactful“. The 25 metrics will help to ensure delivery on zero routine flaring by 2030 and near-zero methane emissions, although these need to be expanded to non-operated assets too. As the CEO of one NGO aptly put it, “it’s time to keep the foot on … err … not the gas pedal, but the EV accelerator”.

6. And Let’s Acknowledge The Key Role Of National Oil Companies

Engaging National Oil Companies (NOCs) is essential as they dominate production and typically have higher emission intensities. Encouragingly, 47% of global oil production is now covered by some kind of methane target, such as OGDC (led by the OGCI (Oil and Gas Climate Initiative)) or OGMP (Oil and Gas Methane Partnership). Applauding the NOCs that have signed up to leading industry standards is crucial—32 companies have joined OGDC and 23 have joined OGMP. Some exemplary collaborations between IOCs and NOCs, like BP with OOC, and Petrobras with Total, show the power of public-private partnerships in building capabilities and accelerating methane reduction. Bravo.

7. Policies and Regulations Are Necessary—But They Need Enforcement

There was widespread agreement at Climate Week that policies and regulations are vital, but enforcement is where the real challenge lies. Economic incentives, like Mexico’s landfill sector carbon pricing, show that aligning self-interest with environmental goals can drive compliance. Policies like the soon-to-be $900 per tonne methane fee in the USA and new methane performance standards in the EU are promising.  We should soon start to see these important developments showing impact.

In Europe, the Methane Regulation on imports into the EU will make on-site leak detection and repair compulsory by 2027. More stringent regulations could significantly reduce emissions if accompanied by proper enforcement. In some cases, enforcement of anti-flaring penalties could raise $900 million in one North African country alone. Hypothecating that revenue so it is automatically distributed back to the source country to fix the problem could unlock major progress and be a great illustration of true partnership and shared accountability. Thanks to the Clean Air Task Force for driving some bold thinking on regulation in the top 20 critical countries, together with Climate & Clean Air Coalition.

8 We Really Do Need To Unlock Financing

Fixing methane & flaring needs capital – hundreds of billions – and many of these projects are intrinsically attractive.  But capital is scarce for projects that are seen to be labelled as “fossil fuels” – so why not reframe them as “decarbonisation projects”? That’s what they are really. No, funding these decarb projects would not be creating “lock-in”.

Great to see the Environmental Defense Fund (EDF) and the Atlantic Council spearheading efforts to unlock creative financing mechanisms. Public and private sectors must collaborate, using innovative financial structures to drive methane reduction projects. We need to get over the 3 challenges of “but it’s fossil fuels”, “but the country risk is too high”, and, “there are not enough finance-ready projects“. This needs creativity, innovation – and a lot of hard work to identify and develop projects both technically and commercially (as we know only too well through our project development work at Capterio).

9 Leadership really matters

As discussed above – and as many at Climate Week said, “the world really must “get on with it“. This will require true leadership and grit. We need more than lofty statements, but leaders who engage deeply, are creative problem-solvers, demonstrate relentless focus, don’t avoid difficult topics and are prepared to take risks. These leaders also need to engage in constructive dialogue and influence a wide range of stakeholders to drive action. We can learn a lot from Maxwell who said (in his book “The 21 Irrefutable Laws of Leadership”): “A leader is one who knows the way, goes the way, and shows the way” – he went on to say true leaders don’t just issue directives from the top – they actively engage in the process, demonstrating the path for others to follow. Food for thought, indeed. How could you think and act differently to accelerate progress?

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Net net, a brilliant week to be in New York talking about some of the world’s most urgent challenges and opportunities. Thanks to Helen Clarkson and all at Climate Group for your leadership in putting it all together. Thank you also to so many for your leadership. Andrew Baxter Dominic Watson Landon Derentz Zubin Bamji Julien Perez Bjørn Otto Sverdrup James Turitto Jonathan Banks Sarah Ann Smith Marcelo Mena Deborah Gordon Jean-Francois Gauthier, MBA TJ Conway and many more.