Lighting the Way in 2025: Solutions to Gas Flaring

2025 will be a pivotal year for accelerating progress on gas flaring. Our New Year article highlights key opportunities and trends to watch.

Big Challenges. Big Opportunities.

The urgent need to reduce gas flaring is becoming impossible to ignore. While climate concerns are critical, economic interests often serve as the immediate driver for action. The encouraging news is that flare reduction addresses both concerns.

The scale of the flaring issue is immense. As highlighted in Capterio’s Financial Times Big Read feature, more than 150 billion cubic metres (BCM) of gas—4% of global production—is flared annually*. This amounts to an eye-watering $30 billion in lost revenue and CO₂-equivalent emissions of 1 billion tonnes. There are opportunities (and risks) for various market participants, including:

• Iraq: Two weeks ago, the Prime Minister’s office announced a bold ambition—to eliminate all 17 BCM of flaring by 2027. This ambition is motivated by daily rolling blackouts and a heavy reliance on unreliable Iranian gas and power imports.
• Algeria: With domestic demand surging and exports declining (by pipeline and LNG), some 6% lower in 2024 compared to 2023**, addressing flaring is no longer optional. Capturing flared gas could generate $2–3 billion annually in revenue.
• Europe: Last week’s shutdown of Russian pipeline gas via Ukraine, coupled with unusually cold weather and near-record withdrawals from storage—made possible by pricier LNG imports, dominated by the USA, and complemented by record LNG imports from Russia—underscores the urgency of securing reliable (low-carbon) supply chains.
• Producers: More than 55 signatories of COP28’s Oil and Gas Decarbonisation Charter have pledged to eliminate routine flaring by 2030. This commitment also extends to methane emissions. Suppliers—including Angola, Algeria, Nigeria, the USA, and Qatar—are increasingly aware that the EU’s Methane Performance Standard will soon result in financial penalties for oil and gas imports, potentially significant for assets with high rates of flaring, venting, and leaking gas.

Despite progress in some countries and companies, the global picture remains sobering. Flaring increased by 7% in 2023 compared to 2022, and our 2024 data shows no material improvement. Methane emissions from major oil and gas provinces are rising, despite the ambitious Global Methane Pledge.

Achieving meaningful reductions requires a holistic approach, encompassing strategy, policy, a clear narrative, and—most critically—delivery.

Better Data. Prioritised Opportunities. Real Delivery.

Delivery and execution are key—yet the opportunities are not always immediately obvious. Better data is, therefore, the cornerstone of action: after all, “if you can’t measure it, you can’t manage it.”

At Capterio, we help companies and countries prioritise opportunities and deliver results. Our award-winning AI-powered platform, FlareIntel, tracks every flare for every asset, company, and country, every day. FlareIntel enhances visibility into flaring, drives operational excellence (minimising “upset” flaring), and prioritises investment opportunities. Together with our academic partners, we have many innovations, including increased satellite coverage, live cloud correction, methane integration, and more.

There are many solutions for flared gas. Much can be achieved with a relentless—data-led—focus on operational excellence to address “upset” flaring. One of our clients has been particularly successful in reducing the frequency of upsets, the duration of upsets, and also their intensity. “Routine” flaring can often be addressed through strategic investments centred around gas-to-power generation (especially if diesel is displaced), gas-to-pipeline (noting most flares are not “stranded” far from infrastructure), or more “exotic” solutions (e.g., cryptocurrency mining or the production of H₂ and graphene/black carbon). Angola has reduced emissions by up to 38 million tonnes per year by building a dedicated LNG export facility. Watch this space for our major publication coming soon that showcases in-depth case studies.

Over the last three years, we have helped our clients reduce their emissions equivalent to removing approximately 3.3 million cars from the road. We are proud to have partnered with our clients to create value, improve energy security, reduce emissions, and accelerate the energy transition—especially within some of their non-operated assets. You can read more about these stories in our insights articles here.

New Year. New Watchlists.

2025 will likely be pivotal (and it certainly needs to be). We will be monitoring developments that will impact either the drivers of flaring or their capture, including:

• US Policy Shifts: President Trump’s “drill, baby, drill” agenda will likely increase oil and gas production (and LNG exports). However, flaring may rise faster than new pipeline infrastructure can manage. Will Biden’s IRA “methane tax” survive? Probably not—potentially harming competitiveness.
• AI: Demand for power for AI (and, to some extent, cryptocurrency mining) is straining grids worldwide. We are seeing more players looking to take advantage of flared gas as a new/non-cannibalising power supply source (especially for crypto, which is well-suited in some circumstances).
• Methane Import Standards: The EU’s Methane Performance Standard will drive producers’ emission accountability. Financial penalties for non-compliance could easily reach $2–3 per million mmbtu.
• International Dynamics: Sanctions, economic headwinds, and shifting trade patterns will shape production in key flaring nations. Capterio’s research last year highlighted the surge in Iran’s flaring following sanctions relaxation and a shift in Russian production from western to eastern basins as their EU market collapsed. What can we expect to see in 2025 from Russia, Iran, Libya, and Venezuela? FlareIntel clients will be the first to know.
• Decarbonisation Charter Progress: Achieving zero routine flaring by 2030 will require substantial investment. Will this accelerate in 2025? Could COP29’s resolution on Article 6 prove a game-changer in mobilising funds for projects with negative marginal abatement costs?
• Unlocking Funding: Mobilising funding to flare capture projects is key. We are looking forward to news from the World Bank’s Methane/Flaring fund from COP28 and other catalytic funding.
• New Satellite Data: Public data from EDF’s MethaneSat and Carbon Mapper’s Tanager-1 satellites will provide new insights, complementing our flaring intelligence.

Capterio Highlights

Our work focuses on client impact (and the equivalent of 3.3 million cars to date). But we are also excited by our broader contribution to the public good through our collaboration with key players in industry, government, and civil society. You might be interested to read about the ground-breaking progress at Turkmenistan’s Darvaza crater, our contributions to the EU’s “You Collect, We Buy” initiative, our latest feature article in the FT, our leadership at Climate Week, Energy Week, and more, and our ongoing collaboration with the UK’s Space Programme.

We also want to take this opportunity to thank all our clients, collaborators, investors, finance partners, and academic partners for your support. To learn how Capterio can help you reduce flaring, create value, and accelerate the energy transition, get in touch at ceo@capterio.com or visit www.capterio.com.

We are excited to work with you and look forward to hearing from you soon.

Until then, all the best for 2025!

Mark

References/further reading

(*) When another 3% of gas (some 107 BCM) from venting and leaking is added, these figures rise to $48 and 6.8 billion CO2-e tonnes (at 20 year GWP), respectively.

(**) See our upcoming paper with Columbia University which highlights a range of exciting real-world flare capture projects which showcase real world delivery.

Iraq’s latest commitments: https://www.barrons.com/news/iraq-says-to-eliminate-pollutant-gas-flaring-by-end-of-2027-ef0bd59c?utm_source=chatgpt.com

Our piece on OGDC: “Oil and Gas Decarbonisation Charter and COP29: Goals Stated. Progress Accelerated?”. 

Global Methane Pledge 3 years on: https://www.kayrros.com/de/the-global-methane-pledge-three-years-on-partial-progress-report/ 

Who regulates the regulators?  A thought piece: https://flareintel.com/insights/who-regulates-the-regulators-in-oil-and-gas-the-win-win-that-comes-from-greater-global-collaboration

Making COP28 truly impactful: https://flareintel.com/insights/making-the-oil-and-gas-industrys-major-cop28-announcements-truly-impactful